People sometimes ask each other, "do you believe so or do you know so?" as a way of testing someone's confidence about some claim. And in this context, "believing" actually represents the more inquisitive, probing attitude, with a willingness to express uncertainty, whereas "knowing" connotes the type of certainty that it seems like you'd like people to avoid in this article.

In truth, all our words about "truth", "facts", "beliefs", etc are all just pragmatic approximations that help us communicate with each other about what assumptions we're going to make within a given context.

It seems, then, that what a "belief" or a "fact" really represents, is ultimately just a prediction about what we expect to observe in the world. If I "believe" or "know" that the sun will rise tomorrow, it means that I "predict" that the sun will rise tomorrow.

Some such predictions (like whether the sun will rise) require a physical test, while others require a social test. If I "believe" or "know" that "Darth Vader is Luke's father", it means I "predict" that anyone else who watches the Star Wars movies will come away with the same conclusion.

The truly dangerous beliefs are those predictions that purport to be physical, but are actually social. Such is the case with religious beliefs.

We need predictions (and therefore, beliefs), because that’s how we navigate life and make decisions. The problem is when we insist that we “believe” (i.e. predict) something to be true, without ever planning on testing it — other than the social proof of others in our tribe expressing approval of what we say.