I accept the conclusion that most trans women lose most of what physical advantage they might have had, pre-transition.
But I'd like to pose a question that I think is on a lot of people's minds, who might still not be fully on board with trans women competing in women's sports, namely: what if a small number of trans women retain a small, but marginally significant, advantage?
Certainly, thus far, trans women have not "taken over" women's sports. Partially, this is predictable, because their simply aren't that many trans women competing, compared to cis women. And on top of that, many would-be trans athletes might be dissuaded from participating, due to the social pressures that don't want them to compete.
But what if, eventually, society gets over their fear, and trans women are eventually accepted into women's sports with open arms?
Please bear with me here...
And what if, probably not right away, but slowly, and one-by one, those few trans women who don't lose all of their pre-transition advantage start to become world record holders? And over the years, there starts to be a trend, where the one-in-a-million trans woman does seem to have a clear advantage over the one-in-a-million cis woman? And, one by one, many of the women's world records start to be held by trans women.
I'm not saying that would be the end of the world. Because after all, sports are just sports (in my opinion).
But my question is: does that somehow change the meaning of the gold medals and world records? At some level, do we feel bad for the cis women who are runners up to nobody but the one-in-a-million trans woman, or do we feel like they should, at some level, be celebrated as holding the cis-women's world record?
I think a lot of people may not be able to articulate it, but I think that is what many people ultimately fear. That regardless of the overall statistics in the short term (demonstrating that most trans women don't have a significant advantage), that in the long term, some advantage will become apparent, which will somehow change the meaning of women's sports and competition altogether.
I don't think I've ever heard this question discussed. But it seems like if we just go there, and really give that question some air time, we might be able to actually acknowledge many people's deep-seeded concerns. You mentioned "manufactured controversy" as the main reason behind the pushback. But I suspect that this underlying question is the fertile soil that allows that controversy to thrive.